NEW DELHI: Exit polls for the 2026 West Bengal assembly elections on Wednesday pointed to a sharply divided verdict, with most projections giving the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) an edge, even as one survey indicated a strong win for the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC).Poll of polls suggested a neck-and-neck fight between the two main contenders, projecting 145 seats each for the BJP and the TMC in the 294-member assembly, with others expected to win around four seats.
However, a majority of individual surveys tilted towards the BJP. Chanakya Strategies projected the BJP at 150–160 seats and the TMC at 130–140. Matrize gave the BJP 146–161 seats against the TMC’s 125–140, while P-MARQ projected a wider margin with the BJP at 150–175 and the TMC at 118–138.JVC indicated a closer race but still put the BJP ahead with 138–159 seats, compared to the TMC’s 131–152. Smaller parties and others were projected to win only a handful of seats across most surveys.In contrast, People’s Pulse stood out as an outlier, projecting a decisive lead for the TMC with 178–187 seats, while placing the BJP at 95–110 seats and others at 2–3. The Left Front, Congress and others, are projected to win only a handful of seats across surveys. Taken together, the projections suggest a bipolar contest, with the BJP appearing to have gained significant ground against the incumbent TMC, which is seeking a fourth consecutive term under chief minister Mamata Banerjee.The exit poll projections come after voting for the final phase concluded on Wednesday evening, with voter turnout touching around 90%, reflecting strong participation across districts. Purba Bardhaman led with over 92% turnout, followed by Hooghly, Nadia and Howrah.The high-voltage campaign saw both sides claiming momentum, with the TMC asserting that the turnout reflected support for its governance, while the BJP argued it indicated a wave for change.Polling day also witnessed sporadic incidents of violence and allegations of intimidation. Leader of opposition Suvendu Adhikari claimed he was surrounded by TMC supporters at a booth, while BJP candidate Ratna Debnath alleged threats in Panihati. Minor clashes were reported in Khanakul, though security forces said the situation was brought under control. In Nadia’s Hatra Bazaar area, tensions led to arrests after a clash between rival groups.The final phase, covering 142 constituencies largely in south Bengal and Kolkata, was seen as crucial for the TMC, which had dominated the region in the 2021 elections. For the BJP, it marked an opportunity to make deeper inroads into urban constituencies and key voter bases.With over 3.21 crore voters and more than 1,400 candidates in the fray, the election has been one of the most closely watched contests in recent years.Counting of votes will take place on May 4, when it will become clear whether the BJP can convert its projected gains into a historic victory or if Mamata Banerjee’s TMC manages to retain its stronghold.