The trinity of artificial intelligence (AI), military autonomy and algorithmic warfare is redefining modern-day warfighting and deterrence. The workflows of combat are being infused with AI and driven by autonomy, but what is making them unfailingly lethal is algorithmic precision. Indeed, these three factors are poised to exponentially increase battlefield lethality over the next few years.
The strategic-military establishment in India would do well to take note of this ‘Manhattan Project’ moment in combat — the deployment of software at unprecedented speed and scale.
Tech in conflict: Ukraine, Venezuela and Iran
Drones are the greatest techno-military revolution since gunpowder and nuclear weapons. Their integration with AI and associated technologies has given birth to the art and science of drone warfare as warcraft, even statecraft.
Their impact has been particularly visible in the Russia-Ukraine war. Ukraine, for instance, uses an AI-enabled data analytics platform called Delta that fuses multiple data inputs (from radar imagery to social media feeds) into one intelligent stream. Delta then plugs into a versatile inventory of drones to form a digital ‘kill web’ that compresses engagement times (detection to neutralisation) to a couple of minutes.
A 35-km corridor along the Russia-Ukraine frontier is nicknamed the “death zone”. In this area, artillery has been pushed back and outranged, tanks don’t move, and infantry soldiers are picked up by surveillance drones and neutralised by FPV (first-person view) drones in a matter of minutes. Unmanned platforms are taking over functions once performed by humans. This ranges from acquiring information and fixing targets to resupplying ammunition and rations, and evacuating casualties.
This year, Ukraine is buying eight million drones, more than the artillery it fired last year. These platforms provide commanders options ranging from close air support (25 km) to strategic air power (2,500 km).
In Venezuela, the US used Anthropic’s Claude in the operation to capture ousted president Nicolas Maduro. AI platforms gave the US top brass insights into Maduro’s movements and helped them anticipate what he would do. Electronic attacks and cyber exploits were then synchronised with the Delta Force’s heliborne assault to telling effect.
In Iran, we saw the development of targeting packages at machine (not human) speeds, enabling precise strikes that wiped out almost the entire Iranian leadership in minutes on the morning of February 28.
Autonomous control
Military autonomy is making giant strides. Drone warfare is moving from remote to algorithmic control. The captains of naval platforms are increasingly going to be autonomous software systems, not humans. In the aerial domain, the development of the YFQ-44A Fury, an AI-powered autonomous fighter jet, by the defence tech startup Anduril, tells us that the future of airpower will be collaborative. This also shows that the business model is moving steadily from traditional defence primes to agile startups.
Lethal technologies are seeing an unprecedented boom. Mythos is a virtual cyber-nuke that can disable any adversary operating system. DeepSeek and Tau’s Law of Scaling (Huawei professing to achieve 1.4 nanometre transistor density by 2031 to challenge the Nvidia Blackwell chips which are in the range of 4 nanometres) are symbols of how Chinese digital innovations are turbo-charging strategic-military competition.
In combat theatres, software innovations are happening every three weeks, while new hardware is being deployed every three months. The Ministry of Defence, which has hitherto been a platform and weapons factory, will have to metamorphose into a software enterprise.
What India can do
The future of defence is also sovereignty. Beginning now, we can embrace the trinity of AI, autonomy and algorithmic warfare through these sovereign pathways:
* Urgently develop an AI-enabled data analytics platform, in the manner of Delta.
* Create software that can autonomously coordinate drones swarms; identify objects of interest; differentiate between birds, civilian aircraft and combat platforms; and direct shooters to destroy targets.
* Set up a diverse inventory of drones, with a target of five million by 2028.
* Deploy an array of counter-drone systems (such as laser and microwave weapons) with drone-hunting teams. This will help to establish drone-driven, AI-enabled “kill webs” along the LoC and LAC.
* Crowd the LEO (low-Earth orbit) space so that we transit from persistent surveillance to offensive ISR (intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance).
* The 2027 defence budget must reflect the transition. At least 40% of the Rs 2 lakh-odd crore earmarked for modernisation should be spent on technological solutions.
This is a huge challenge that will require a cultural and structural transformation. Successful adoption, however, will be game changing. It will expand options in crisis situations while enabling India to attain “combat overmatch” with Pakistan and “asymmetric deterrence” with China.
The author is a lieutenant general, and retired as Army Commander, Army Training Command (ARTRAC).