Are Brent crude oil prices set to cross $120 per barrel again? According to Goldman Sachs Group Brent crude prices could climb above $120 a barrel in the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continue. However, the investment bank said this is not its central forecast.Global energy markets have experienced significant volatility this month, with Brent crude climbing above $91 a barrel amid renewed hostilities between the US and Iran. Market sentiment has also been affected by threats from Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen to impose a blockade on Saudi shipments. Oil exports routed through the Red Sea have become especially important in helping crude cargoes from the disrupted Persian Gulf reach global buyers.
Goldman warns of crude at $120
In a note dated July 20, Goldman Sachs analysts said, “Escalation in the Middle East and the decline in estimated Persian Gulf flows to below 45% of pre-war levels have pushed oil prices back up.”According to a Bloomberg report, Goldman Sachs’ base-case scenario assumes tensions in the Middle East ease, under which it expects Brent crude to average $80 a barrel in the fourth quarter and $75 a barrel next year. However, the analysts said the risks to this outlook remain “tilted to the upside” because of continued shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of further interruptions in the Red Sea.Also Read | Strait of Hormuz closure: Why crude oil prices haven’t spiralled out of control amid US-Iran conflict The analysts said the decline in global oil inventories during the second quarter has made the market more vulnerable to supply disruptions. However, weaker crude imports by China, along with higher demand elasticity, could moderate the extent of any price rally.For investors looking to protect themselves against prolonged geopolitical risks stemming from the Middle East and Russia, Goldman recommended taking a long position in the European diesel timespread for the period between December 2026 and March 2027.According to the analysts, diesel markets were already experiencing tight supply conditions before the conflict began. They noted that Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries were continuing, while additional risks to diesel supplies included hurricanes, extreme summer temperatures and delays in refinery maintenance.Brent crude futures were last trading at $88.54 a barrel. Earlier this year, during the initial stage of the US-Iran conflict, prices had climbed to above $126 a barrel in late April.